- 01
Observe without concluding
The first walkthrough is not a decision, and I will not let it become one. Finishes get looked at last, because they are the cheapest thing to change and the easiest thing to fake. What I am reading on the first pass is the envelope: roof plane and penetrations, stucco and its drainage detail, window flashing, grade and drainage away from the foundation, and where water has obviously gone before.
A repainted flip is a hypothesis, not a finding.
- 02
Read the build year
Construction era predicts failure mode, and it is knowable before I walk through the door. Polybutylene supply went in roughly 1978 to 1995. Federal Pacific and Zinsco panels have documented failure modes. Galvanized supply in pre-war Phoenix homes is at the end of its service life. EIFS stucco needs a drainage detail that was frequently omitted. The year built tells me what to look for.
This is materials science, not intuition.
- 03
Run the four tests
Before any inspection contingency is released, four things get ordered: a sewer scope, a moisture survey of the building envelope, an HVAC load verification, and an electrical panel identification. A general home inspection is a visual survey by a generalist. It is a starting point, not a finding. These four are where the expensive surprises actually live.
Roughly $600–$1,200 total. Against a seven-figure purchase.
- 04
Screen the comparables, do not average them
In Arcadia a 1954 original and a 2023 rebuild trade on the same block. Averaging those produces a number that describes no actual house. Outliers get identified and excluded with a stated reason, not blended away. You will see the reasoning, including the comparables I threw out and why.
An average of two unlike things describes neither.
- 05
Price the deferred maintenance
Everything the tests surface becomes a line item with a real number attached, sourced from a contractor rather than estimated from a feeling. Phoenix water chemistry alone — twelve to eighteen grains per gallon depending on zone — is a recurring cost that shortens water heater life and scales every coil and fixture in the house. The absence of treatment is priced into the offer.
A finding without a dollar figure is not actionable.
- 06
Change one variable at a time
When a listing is not moving, the common response is to change price, photography, and staging in the same week — and then have no idea which one mattered. That is a ruined experiment. We change one input, hold the rest constant, measure showing-to-offer conversion over a defined interval, and then decide. Slower by a few days. Dramatically better at finding the actual problem.
Confounded variables produce confident wrong answers.